Royal Meteorological Society Masterclass | Ensemble Forecasting: From Chaos to AI

This Royal Meteorological Society masterclass explores how meteorologists turn uncertainty into useful forecasts by using ensemble prediction. Led by Dr Robert Lee of the University of Reading, the session looks at the science of predictability and chaos in the atmosphere, and explains why weather forecasts can change as new information becomes available.

Participants will hear how forecasting centres such as ECMWF create ensemble forecasts, how these models represent uncertainty in both the atmosphere and the forecast system, and why ensembles are often more informative than a single best-guess forecast. The session also uses real-world examples to show how ensembles can highlight the likelihood of extreme events and identify the atmospheric features that matter most for future weather.

It finishes by considering how artificial-intelligence weather models are changing the future of weather and subseasonal forecasting.