Royal Meteorological Society Masterclass: The Stratosphere as a Source of Predictability Weeks to Months Ahead

This virtual masterclass explores why weather forecasts become harder to make as the lead time extends from days into weeks and months. It looks at the stratosphere as an important part of the atmosphere that can sometimes add predictability, with changes in its circulation influencing surface weather several weeks later.

The session also considers why these signals are not always consistent and why turning them into better forecasts remains a challenge.

Dr Xiaocen Shen will introduce how variability in the stratosphere can affect weather patterns during Northern Hemisphere winter. The talk will explain the physical mechanisms linking the stratosphere and the surface, and how those links can inform subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.

It is aimed at anyone with an interest in weather and climate science, from enthusiasts to experts, and forms part of the Royal Meteorological Society’s meetings programme. Attendance is free and the event is delivered online via Zoom.